Why Do Good Weather Forecasts Go Bad?
Prof David M. Schultz, University of Manchester
Is it really so hard to get it right? How come weather forecasts can be so wrong?
As a meteorologist David Schultz knows that the future of the atmosphere can be determined from a fairly simple set of five physically-based equations. Which in turn means that the weather should be easy to forecast. If so, why are weather forecasts sometimes so bad?
In this talk, David will present the scientific basis for why it is possible to forecast the weather at all. He will shed light on how modern weather prediction is done by computer these days and why sometimes it all goes wrong.
Prof Schultz will also show how you too can forecast the weather from your classroom giving you the chance to become a weather wizard.
Who is David Schultz?
David Schultz is Professor of Synoptic Meteorology at the University of Manchester. He was born in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, received his B.S. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, his M.S. from the University of Washington, and his Ph.D. from the University at Albany, State University of New York. Previously, he worked for the NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory and University of Oklahoma (1996–2006) and the University of Helsinki and Finnish Meteorological Institute (2006–2011). In 2002, he was selected as a forecaster for the National Weather Service Office in Salt Lake City during the 2002 Winter Olympic Games.
He has taught forecasters in the USA, China, Finland, Romania, and Turkey and has published 150 peer-reviewed articles. Prof Schultz’s primary research interests are in how the atmosphere works to create weather and climate.
He has studied atmospheric phenomenon from as small as tornadoes to as large as the planetary scale circulation during the Jurassic.
He is a Senior Fellow of the UK Higher Education Academy, a winner of multiple teaching awards, and teacher of thousands of students in the online course Our Earth: Its Climate, History and Processes. ManUniCast.com, the online weather and air-quality forecasting site and app he helped create, was nominated for the Times Higher Education 2015 award for Outstanding Digital Innovation in Teaching or Research. He is also the author of Eloquent Science: A Practical Guide to Becoming a Better Writer, Speaker, and Atmospheric Scientist. He blogs at www.eloquentscience.com and tweets at @EloquentScience.
- Why do Good Weather Forecast Go Bad?
22nd March 2018
9:30 am - 1:00 pm